The Platts pre-report survey of analysts’ EIA/API estimates suggest a draw of 2.4 million barrels in US crude oil stocks
Platts Survey of Analysts
- Crude oil stocks down 2.4 million barrels
- Gasoline stocks up 1.75 million barrels
- Distillates stocks down 300,000 barrels
- Refinery utilization, or run rate, down 0.15% percentage point to 87.85%
New York - December 20, 2010
Weekly oil data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the American Petroleum Institute (API) is expected to show a draw of about 2.4 million barrels in US commercial crude oil stocks for the reporting week ended December 17, analysts polled by Platts said Monday.
API is scheduled to release its weekly data at 4:30 p.m. EST (2130 GMT) Tuesday. EIA's weekly oil statistics will be released at 10:30 a.m. EST (1530 GMT) Wednesday.
Between November 26 and December 10 US crude oil stocks have fallen 13.673 million barrels to 346.018 million barrels, as refinery runs have rebounded and companies unload barrels for tax purposes.
"Due to [Last In-First Out] accounting, refiners have a dis-incentive to hold inventories above Jan 1 levels if oil prices advance by the end of the year," said MF Global analyst Tom Pawlicki in a report. "Since that is the case this year, commercial stocks are roughly another 18.7 MB above Jan 1 levels with three reporting weeks left in the year."
The week ending January 1, 2010, U.S. crude stocks were at 327.33 million barrels.
The bulk of the year-end draws have been seen on the US Gulf Coast, where state tax laws also play into inventory management. Stocks the week ending December 10 at 173.369 million barrels were down 10.907 million barrels from the week ended November 26, but up 12.691 million barrels from the week ended January 1, suggesting additional draws are in store.
Not all analysts are looking for a stock draw, however. Jim Ritterbush, an independent analyst, expects a 2 million barrel build.
"Crude supplies are expected to show a hike as imports likely rebounded from the prior week's unsustainably low pace of 7.7 [million b/d]," he said in a report.
Analysts polled by Platts expect refinery runs to fall slightly, by 0.15 percentage points to 87.85% of capacity, based on EIA data for the week ending December 10.
"This week’s report will likely show negligible change in refinery runs as seasonal tendencies are mixed and strong Gulf coast activity in excess of 90% of capacity was likely pulled back a notch in the process of offsetting some additional expected recovery on the East coast from around 80% of capacity," Ritterbusch said.
Analysts expect a 1.75-million-barrel build in US gasoline stocks and a 300,000-barrel draw in distillate stocks.
Steady refinery runs are expected keep production of both gasoline and distillates high, although the cold snap along the US Atlantic Coast may have boosted demand for high sulfur distillates.
"Gasoline stocks have built in three of the last five years, for a three-year average build of 2.445 [million barrels], and a five-year build of 1.231 [million barrels]," Cameron Hanover analysts said in a report.
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