Platts pre-report analyst survey suggests US EIA data will show an 77- to 81-Bcf addition in natural gas stocks

Washington - September 22, 2010

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected Thursday to report a net injection of 77 to 81 billion cubic feet (Bcf) to natural gas storage for the week that ended September 17, according to a Platts survey of analysts.

A build within that range would be larger than both the 66-Bcf build in the comparable week of 2009 and the five-year-average of 70 Bcf, according to EIA. As a result, the 182-Bcf deficit to last year’s level is expected to narrow, while the 192-Bcf surplus over the five-year average will likely expand.

Beyond the consensus, the wider range of analyst estimates for the week that ended September 17 spanned from injections of 67 Bcf to 90 Bcf.

FirstEnergy Capital analyst Martin King said the return of a normal work week following the US Labor Day holiday should result in a lower injection than the prior week’s 103-Bcf build. But he noted that weather across the country has cooled substantially, lessening the need for gas-fired power generation and freeing up gas for storage.

King said the possibility of much higher-than-average storage injections in the coming weeks may be a recipe for further gas price weakness leading up to the start of heating season in November. "We are still forecasting storage to rise to near 3.8 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) by the end of October," he said. "There may well be injections in the first half of November to contend with as well."

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This analyst survey is conducted by Platts’ editorial team in Washington, DC and is published every Wednesday morning, one day ahead of the 10:30 a.m. (ET) Thursday release of the weekly natural gas storage report of the U. Energy Information Administration. Platts has been conducting this survey since January 2007. The survey includes 15 to 25 analysts, some on a rotational basis.

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