Platts report: China's Aug. oil demand up 7.6% from year ago at 8.4 mil. b/d

Singapore - September 21, 2010

China consumed an estimated 35.54 million metric tons (mt) of oil in August, 7.6% higher than the corresponding month of last year, but a continuing decline from June's all-time peak, according to a just-released Platts analysis of official data from the People’s Republic of China.

The August apparent* oil demand equates to an average 8.40 million barrels per day (b/d), compared with 8.47 million b/d in July and 8.97 million b/d in June this year.

Meanwhile, for the first eight months of 2010, China's apparent oil demand was 282.17 million mt or an average of 8.51 million b/d, up 10.9% from the corresponding period of 2009, Platts data showed.

Chinese refiners processed a total 34.73 million mt or an average 8.21 million b/d of crude oil in August, up 6.7% from a year ago, but down 1.6% from July, according to data released earlier in the month by China’s National Bureau of Statistics. Crude imports jumped 13% from a year ago to 20.9 million mt, or about 4.92 million b/d.

"The growth in China's monthly implied oil demand has dropped to single digits since May from the 13% to 18% range seen in the first four months of this year. While this could be partly explained by a low comparison base in the early part of 2009 when the Chinese economy briefly stalled, one cannot ignore the month-on-month decline since July," said Vandana Hari, Asia editorial director at Platts.

"At first glance, the decline in Chinese oil consumption from June's record high of 8.97 million b/d seems counter-intuitive in the face of official data showing acceleration in the country's industrial output, retail sales, and imports in August. But that suggests the current trough in oil demand might be short-lived," Hari said.

Meanwhile, China's net refined product imports surged nearly 76% to 0.81 million mt in August from 0.46 million mt a year earlier. On a month-to-month basis, August imports surpassed July’s 0.54 million mt as product exports dropped more sharply than imports. Data table follows.

	Aug. '10	Aug. '09	July '10	% Chg	June '10	May '10	Apr. '10
Net crude imports	20.65	17.92	+15.23	18.83	22.14	17.65	20.98
Crude production	17.43	16.32	+6.80	17.22	16.88	17.16	16.26
Apparent demand*	35.54	33.02	+7.63	35.82	36.74	36.48	35.42

*Platts calculates China's apparent or implied oil demand on the basis of crude throughput volumes at the domestic refineries and net oil product imports, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics and Chinese customs.

The government releases data on imports, exports, domestic crude production and refinery throughput data, but does not give official data on the country's actual oil consumption figure and oil stockpiles. Official statistics on oil storage are released intermittently.

Platts releases its monthly calculation of China's apparent demand between the 18th and 26th of every month via press release and via its website. Any use of this information must be appropriately attributed to Platts.

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