The Platts pre-report analyst survey of EIA/API estimates suggests a draw of 1.75 million barrels in U.S. crude oil stocks
Platts Survey of Analysts
- Crude oil stocks down 1.75 million barrels
- Gasoline stocks up 640,000 barrels
- Distillates stocks up 760,000 barrels
- Refinery utilization, or run rate, up 0.03 percentage point to at 89.13%
New York - June 14, 2010
Data to be published this week by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected to show a draw in commercial crude oil inventories of 1.75 million barrels for the week ending June 11, according to analysts polled by Platts Monday.
API is scheduled to release its data at 4:30 p.m. ET (2130 GMT) Tuesday. EIA's report will be released at 10:30 a.m. ET (1530 GMT) Wednesday.
Some analysts are looking for a drop in crude imports, which would result in a weekly stock draw. Also, a stock draw would be consistent with historical trends.
"Crude supplies are expected to show another significant draw largely as a result of an anticipated decline in imports following the prior week's modest uptick," independent analyst Jim Ritterbusch said in a report. "Crude stocks have decreased in four of the past five years, with the average draw approximating" 1.5 million barrels. Ritterbusch is also expecting stocks at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude oil futures contracts delivery point of Cushing, Oklahoma to climb between 250,000 to 500,000 barrels.
U.S. crude oil imports climbed 80,000 barrels per day (b/d) the week ending June 4 to 9.535 million b/d, according to the EIA. But crude inputs were also higher, resulting in a 1.8-million-barrel-crude-stock draw.
"If we get another crude oil drawdown, it will be a sign that crude oil builds are effectively behind us – by making it the third consecutive drawdown in a row," said Cameron Hanover analysts in a report. "Of course a build would have something of the opposite effect, suggesting that the draws were aberrations."
The five-year average of the EIA data shows crude stocks falling steadily into the summer months, corresponding with high crude runs. Analysts anticipate slightly higher refinery operations, forecasting a 0.03 percentage-point increase in the refinery utilization rate to 89.13% of capacity, based on the EIA data for the week ending June 4.
Analysts anticipate an increase in U.S. gasoline stocks of 640,000 barrels, and a rise in distillate inventories of 760,000 barrels. Builds would fit with historical trends; the five-year average of the EIA's weekly data shows a build for both gasoline and distillate stocks.
Also, continued strong refinery runs are expected to lead to higher gasoline and distillate production, while implied demand* is not expected to show significant week-on-week gains.
Gasoline imports have fallen the past two weeks. Another decrease in imports will likely limit any stock build and could even produce a draw.
The U.S. is less reliant on distillate imports, which have been steady at roughly 220,000 b/d during the past four weeks, according to the EIA. But analysts agree a rise in diesel exports could limit distillate stock building.
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