Platts pre-report analyst survey suggests US EIA data will show a 91-to 95-Bcf addition in natural gas stocks for the latest reporting week
Washington - June 9, 2010
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected Thursday to report a net injection of 91 to 95 billion cubic feet (Bcf) to natural gas storage for the week that ended June 4, according to a Platts survey of analysts.
An injection within those expectations would be smaller than last year's109-Bcf build and on par with the five-year-average of 95 Bcf, according to EIA. As a result, the 38-Bcf surplus to last year is expected to narrow, while the 306-Bcf surplus over the five-year average will likely remain relatively flat.
Although temperatures across much of the U.S. last week were warmer than normal, last week's data will include the Memorial Day holiday, a period of reduced industrial demand, analysts said.
FirstEnergy Capital analyst Martin King said the market is "roughly evenly balanced to slightly oversupplied" over the short term. "Recent prices are still attractive enough for the power generation market, but could start to curb some spot industrial demand if there is a concerted effort to move prices above the $5/MMBtu*-level prematurely," King said.
Looking ahead, Ron Denhardt, vice president of natural gas services with Strategic Energy and Economic Research, predicted an additional 150 Bcf in incremental gas demand if cooling degree days average 10% greater than normal for the remainder of the storage refill season.
"This increased consumption would likely be sufficient to assure working gas storage would not be full" by the end of the summer, and prices would likely push higher, he said.
*MMBtu stands for per million British thermal units.
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This analyst survey is conducted by Platts’ editorial team in Washington DC and is published every Wednesday morning, one day ahead of the 10:30 am (EST) Thursday release of the weekly natural gas storage report of the US Energy Information Administration. Platts has been conducting this survey since January 2007. IMPORTANT NOTE TO EDITORS: The survey results attached above do not contain commentary from a Platts staff member. The survey is conducted and prepared by the Platts market news editors, but the views are those of non-Platts market analysts. The survey includes 15 to 25 analysts, some on a rotational basis. This differs from the weekly pre-report analyst survey of EIA/API US oil stocks data conducted each week by Platts editors, which does include the views of Platts’ editors.
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