The Platts pre-report analyst survey of EIA/API estimates suggests a 100,000-barrel build in US crude oil stocks
Platts Survey of Analysts
- Crude oil stocks up 100,000 barrels
- Gasoline stocks up 150,000 barrels
- Distillates stocks up 200,000 barrels
- Refinery utilization, or run rate, down 0.13 percentage point to 87.77%
New York - May 24, 2010
Data to be published this week by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected to show a commercial crude stock build of 100,000 barrels for the week ending May 21, analysts polled by Platts said Monday.
API is scheduled to release its data at 4:30 p.m. ET (2130 GMT) Tuesday. EIA's report will be released at 10:30 a.m. ET (1530 GMT) Wednesday.
Analysts are divided, with some looking for slight stock builds, and others draws. For instance, independent analyst Jim Ritterbusch is expecting a draw of 700,000 barrels.
"Crude supplies are expected to show a slight draw largely as a result of anticipated declines in imports following recent strength," he said in a report.
U.S. crude imports at 9.829 million barrels per day (b/d) the week ending May 14 were up from 9.687 million b/d the prior week (May 7), according to the EIA. But high imports this time of year are considered to be the seasonal norm. On a five-year average, imports in May have ranged between 9.7 million b/d and 10.2 million b/d.
U.S. imports have been falling below the five-year average going on eight months, although the gap below that average has narrowed in recent weeks.
"The most important figure this week will be crude oil stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma – already at record highs," said Cameron Hanover analysts in a report. Stocks at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude oil futures delivery point of Cushing were at 37.945 million barrels the week ending May 14, according to the EIA. Ritterbusch is looking for another 1-million-barrel build for the week ending May 21.
The NYMEX July/August crude spread futures price settled at minus $1.41 per barrel (/b) Monday, May 24, narrowing from $1.63/b on May 21, suggesting Cushing stocks may begin to decline going forward.
Analysts polled by Platts are looking for refinery operations to fall 0.13 percentage point to 87.77% of capacity. But as with crude stocks, analysts are mixed, with some expecting an increase in runs, which would follow recent trends.
U.S. crude runs were at 15.192 million b/d the week ending May 14, according to the EIA. The five-year average shows crude inputs rising to the 15.5 million b/d level in the summer months.
Analysts polled by Platts are expecting gasoline stocks to rise 150,000 barrels and distillate stocks to rise 200,000 barrels. However, some analysts are looking for slight draws following the declines seen the week ending May 14.
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