The Platts pre-report analyst survey of EIA/API estimates suggests a 1.5-million-barrel build in US crude oil stocks
Platts Survey of Analysts
- Crude oil stocks up 1.5 million barrels
- Gasoline stocks down 1 million barrels
- Distillates stocks down 1.5 million barrels
- Refinery utilization, or run rate, up 0.2 percentage point to 82.80%
New York - April 6, 2010
This week's American Petroleum Institute (API) and U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) stock data will likely show a commercial crude oil inventory build of 1.5 million barrels for the week ending April 2, analysts polled by Platts said Tuesday.
API is scheduled to release its data at 4:30 p.m. ET (2130 GMT) Tuesday. EIA's report will be released at 10:30 a.m. ET (1530 GMT) Wednesday.
Analysts expect imports to grow, mostly on the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and West Coast regions, after marking a 337,000 barrel per day (b/d) decline in the week ended March 26.
Imports slumped to a 12-month low in the week ended December 11, 2009 at 7.707 million b/d on the back of a slow-down in the economy, translating to weak demand for petroleum products.
"Crude supplies are expected to show a small increase largely as a result of an expected uptick in imports of as much as 200,000 b/d per the EIA," Jim Ritterbusch, independent energy consultant said in a report.
U.S. crude stocks climbed 2.92 million barrels in the reporting week ending March 26 to 354.189 million barrels, a 10-month high.
"We do expect the market to acknowledge that the uptrend in stocks is contradicting the assumption that an economic recovery will mean a tighter market and even higher prices," Tim Evans, analyst at Citi Futures Perspectives said in a report.
New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) front-month crude oil futures prices have and continue to breach 18-month highs despite lack of fundamental support, on technical momentum supported by non-commercial buying interest, analysts said.
"Although we continue to have much difficulty in building a bullish case for this complex on pure fundamental merits, we are conceding to the bullish technical picture," Ritterbusch said.
Analysts are expecting crude stocks to build the week ending April 2 despite expectations that refinery capacity would improve as refineries, particularly on the U.S. Gulf Coast, returned to normal after maintenance periods.
Analysts polled by Platts are looking for refinery runs to gain 0.20 percentage point to 82.80%, based on prior EIA data for the week ending March 26.
"Runs have increased in three of the past five years during this particular week," Ritterbusch said.
In products, analysts are expecting a seasonal draw averaging 1.50 million barrels from distillates stocks, which would put total stocks at 143.10 million barrels.
If analysts’ expectations are correct, the distillates surplus over the five-year average will likely grow by 304,600 barrels to 25.012 million barrels.
Meanwhile, analysts’ expectations for gasoline stocks are mixed, ranging from a build to a draw for the week ended April 2nd, following a surprising counter-seasonal build in the week ended March 26.
Total gasoline production was up 12,000 b/d at 9.036 million b/d highest level this year, based EIA data for the week that ended March 26, and gasoline imports have increased by 87,000 b/d averaging at 710,000 b/d, explaining the rise in stocks.
Fundamentals for gasoline are soft and with "unemployment rate still high, we also have little reason to anticipate a demand surge that would tax U.S. refining capacity any time soon," Evans said.
On the other hand, "we look for gasoline stocks to post a significant draw mainly on an expected upswing in demand due to some expected distributor stocking ahead of Easter weekend," noted Ritterbusch.
Overall, analysts polled by Platts expect a draw of 1 million barrels in gasoline inventories for the week ended April 2.
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