Analysis of U.S. EIA data: crude oil imports rebound, causing surprise stock build
New York - February 3, 2010
A 559,000 barrel per day (b/d) rebound in U.S. crude oil imports, combined with an unexpected decline in refinery run rates, caused U.S. crude stocks to climb 2.317 million barrels during the week ending January 29, an analysis of oil data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed Wednesday.
Analysts polled by Platts expected crude stocks to fall 1 million barrels.
Of the gain in crude imports, 337,000 b/d was along the Gulf Coast, where a backlog was caused by a 24-hour closing of the Houston Ship Channel the previous week. Crude stocks along the Gulf Coast jumped 4.973 million barrels to 170.886 million barrels.
Crude imports were 8.426 million b/d overall.
Crude stocks at 328.994 million barrels were 11.885 million barrels above the five-year average, but 17.057 million barrels below year-ago levels, EIA data showed.
While Gulf Coast crude imports surged, the Midwest tumbled 335,000 b/d, causing inventories in that region to fall 2.221 million barrels to 83.894 million barrels. Imports from Canada typically taper off during the winter months due to domestic fuel needs.
Stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma -- home of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) oil futures contract delivery point -- declined another 1.037 million barrels to 31.997 million barrels. This was the result of high shipper demand on the Spearhead pipeline, which links the Chicago, Illinois market to Cushing, which was 141,688 b/d last month compared to capacity of 172,890 b/d. Inventories at Cushing have declined 3.673 million barrels over the past five weeks.
Refinery throughputs, as an ongoing sign of the current weak margin environment, fell 133,000 b/d to 13.738 million b/d, with nearly all the drop-off occurring along the Gulf Coast despite several restarts.
The result of the decline in throughputs was a marked drop in output of refined product. Gasoline production dropped 52,000 b/d to 8.584 million b/d; distillate output was down 32,000 b/d to 3.484 million b/d; jet output was 34,000 b/d lower at 1.309 million b/d; and residual fuel oil production fell 105,000 b/d to 662,000 b/d.
The real surprise was the 1.306-million-barrel drop in gasoline inventories, to 228.121 million barrels. Gasoline stocks were 5.108 million barrels above the five-year average and 7.90 million barrels above year-ago levels.
While gasoline demand held steady at 8.613 million b/d and imports edged up 22,000 b/d to 926,000 b/d, a 52,000 b/d decline in output resulted in the inventory drop. Most of that decline in production was along the Gulf Coast, not the Atlantic Coast, where refining capacity continues to decline.
U.S. oil demand continued to slip, falling 142,000 b/d to 18.742 million b/d week-over-week. The sharpest declines were concentrated in middle distillates, residual fuel oil and propane/propylene as demand for winter fuels ebbed temporarily.
The decline in demand for middle distillates, which was down 66,000 b/d to 3.659 million b/d, tempered the drop in stocks. Stocks of middle distillates edged down 948,000 barrels to 156.548 million barrels. At 156.548 million barrels, they were 24.422 million barrels above the five-year average and 13.957 million barrels above year-ago levels, with almost all the surplus in diesel inventories.
This week's decline in middle distillates inventories was concentrated in diesel stocks. Inventories of heating oil rose 800,000 barrels.
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