The Platts pre-report analyst survey suggests US EIA data will show a 253- to 258 Bcf withdrawal in natural gas stocks for the latest reporting week
Washington - January 13, 2010
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected Thursday to report a net withdrawal of 253 to 258 billion cubic feet (Bcf) from natural gas storage for the week that ended January 8, according to a Platts survey of analysts.
A drawdown of that magnitude would be much larger than last year's 88-Bcf withdrawal and the five-year-average pull of 76 Bcf, according to EIA. As a result, the year-on-year surplus of 286 Bcf and the five-year-average surplus of 316 Bcf each should shrink.
Beyond the consensus, analyst expectations spanned from a drawdown of 195 Bcf to as high as 280 Bcf – which would surpass the highest withdrawal on record of 274 Bcf for the week ended January 25, 2008, according to EIA.
Societe Generale analyst Laurent Key said he does not expect a record-breaking pull but surmised that the record "would have been broken under healthier economic conditions."
Cameron Hanover President Peter Beutel said a "major moderation in temperatures" over the next few weeks should keep gas prices from rallying back above the $6/MMBtu mark. "Nonetheless, with a possibly major adjustment in the [storage] surpluses this week, levels under $5/MMBtu seem low," he added.
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This analyst survey is conducted by Platts’ editorial team in Washington DC and is published every Wednesday morning, one day ahead of the 10:30 am (EST) Thursday release of the weekly natural gas storage report of the US Energy Information Administration. Platts has been conducting this survey since January 2007. IMPORTANT NOTE TO EDITORS: The survey results attached above do not contain commentary from a Platts staff member. The survey is conducted and prepared by the Platts market news editors, but the views are those of non-Platts market analysts. The survey includes 15 to 25 analysts, some on a rotational basis. This differs from the weekly pre-report analyst survey of EIA/API US oil stocks data conducted each week by Platts Senior Oil Analyst Linda Rafield, which does include the views of Platts’ oil analyst Linda Rafield.
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