Platts' pre-report analyst survey of weekly EIA/API estimates suggests a 1.5 million barrel build in US oil stocks


New York, NY - August 26, 2008


Analysts expect a 1.5 million barrel build in US commercial crude stocks when the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and American Petroleum Institute (API) release weekly data on Wednesday, a Platts survey indicated Tuesday. The EIA/API data is scheduled to be reported Wednesday at 10:35 a.m. ET/15:35 GMT.


"US crude oil imports are not likely to remain up at the 11 million barrels per day (b/d) level seen the week ending August 15, but a still low rate of refinery utilization is apt to lead to a stock build," said Linda Rafield, Platts senior oil analyst and editor of Platts Futures & Derivatives Review.


US crude imports surged 1.336 million b/d to 10.991 million b/d the week ending August 15, according to data from the EIA, as tankers kept out at sea as a result of Tropical Storm Edouard finally offloaded.


Imports are apt to decline to 10.2 million b/d the week ending August 22.


Refinery utilization is projected by analysts to edge up 0.25 percentage point to 85.95%, a still unseasonably low rate.


Analysts were projecting a draw of 2.8 million barrels in gasoline stocks. "Ongoing low refinery output and an uptick in demand ahead of Labor Day weekend are likely to result in the fifth consecutive decline in gasoline inventories," Rafield said. Gasoline stocks have dropped 20.465 million barrels to 196.62 million barrels over the past four weeks.


Analysts were also expecting a build of 900,000 barrels in distillate stocks as less-than-optimal refiner output and low import levels temper an increase in inventories.